查看完整版本 : 熱帶氣旋27W 天鷹 (位於關島附近，預測前途一片光明~ 對本地影響有待觀察)

位於關島附近的低壓區已經增強為27W
JTWC更預測27W前途一片光明，不妨留意。

[color=royalblue]各位請集中在此討論其動態。
[/color]
[color=royalblue]各位請集中在此討論其動態。
以下是 JTWC 發出有關該熱帶氣旋的資料(自動更新)：

[/color][img]http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp1711.gif[/img]

[color=royalblue]以下是 東亞最新衛星影像[/color][color=royalblue](自動更新)[/color][color=royalblue]：[/color]
[img]http://www.cwb.gov.tw/V7/observe/satellite/Data/s1p/s1p.jpg[/img]

[color=royalblue]以下是歐洲中期天氣預報中心最新數值天氣預報[/color][color=royalblue](自動更新)[/color][color=royalblue]：[/color]
[color=#ff0000][size=7][b][u][img]http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500%21Wind%20850%20and%20mslp%210%21Asia%21pop%21od%21oper%21public_plots%21%21%21chart.gif[/img]
[img]http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500%21Wind%20850%20and%20mslp%2124%21Asia%21pop%21od%21oper%21public_plots%21%21%21chart.gif[/img]
[img]http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500%21Wind%20850%20and%20mslp%2148%21Asia%21pop%21od%21oper%21public_plots%21%21%21chart.gif[/img]
[img]http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500%21Wind%20850%20and%20mslp%2172%21Asia%21pop%21od%21oper%21public_plots%21%21%21chart.gif[/img]
[img]http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500%21Wind%20850%20and%20mslp%2196%21Asia%21pop%21od%21oper%21public_plots%21%21%21chart.gif[/img]
[img]http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500%21Wind%20850%20and%20mslp%21120%21Asia%21pop%21od%21oper%21public_plots%21%21%21chart.gif[/img]
[img]http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500%21Wind%20850%20and%20mslp%21144%21Asia%21pop%21od%21oper%21public_plots%21%21%21chart.gif[/img]
[img]http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500%21Wind%20850%20and%20mslp%21168%21Asia%21pop%21od%21oper%21public_plots%21%21%21chart.gif[/img]
[img]http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500%21Wind%20850%20and%20mslp%21192%21Asia%21pop%21od%21oper%21public_plots%21%21%21chart.gif[/img]
[img]http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500%21Wind%20850%20and%20mslp%21216%21Asia%21pop%21od%21oper%21public_plots%21%21%21chart.gif[/img]
[img]http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500%21Wind%20850%20and%20mslp%21240%21Asia%21pop%21od%21oper%21public_plots%21%21%21chart.gif[/img]

[/u][/b][/size][/color][color=royalblue]以下是香港天文台的數值天氣預報850hpa渦度及流線[/color][color=royalblue](自動更新)[/color][color=royalblue]：[/color]
[color=#ff0000][size=7][b][u][img]http://www.weather.gov.hk/nhm/img/nhmmap/up85vt_c_00.png[/img]
[img]http://www.weather.gov.hk/nhm/img/nhmmap/up85vt_c_24.png[/img]
[img]http://www.weather.gov.hk/nhm/img/nhmmap/up85vt_c_48.png[/img]
[img]http://www.weather.gov.hk/nhm/img/nhmmap/up85vt_c_72.png[/img]
警告
[/u][/b][/size][b][size=5]所有累積多次扣分紀錄的違規者，[/size][/b][size=5]
[b]將可能被永久禁言。[/b][/size][/color]
[color=#ff0000]
1. 請所有進入此區的版友閱讀本版版規。[/color]
[color=red]在繁忙時候，[b][u]本版執法會較為嚴厲[/u][/b]。[/color]
[color=red]2. 轉載文章或非原創資料時[b][u]須附上個人意見[/u][/b]。[/color]
[color=red]3. 除匯報各區天氣形勢外(惟內容必須充分)，
[color=red][b][u]勿發表其他報告式文字[/u][/b](如：「3 號風球 now」)。[/color]
[color=#ff0000]而轉載非原創資料時亦須附上充分的個人意見。[/color]
[color=#ff0000]如只附加過於簡單的個人文字即止，[/color]
[color=#ff0000]例如：「北左 0.1」、「0.1E now」等將被視為發表報告式文章。[/color]
[/color]
[color=red]4. [b][u]此處不是訊號討論帖[/u][/b]。[/color]
[color=red]除引以充分資料/過去理據外，[/color]
[color=red]請勿過份討論訊號或機構運作。[/color]
[color=red]5. [b][u]發表問題時宜有建議性[/u][/b]，[/color]
[color=red]例如以理論角度研究颱風走勢，[/color]
[color=red]而非詢問毫無討論意義的問題(如：個風幾點登陸海南島?)[/color]
[color=red]6. 如欲發表[b][u]閒聊式文章[/u][/b]或詢問其他問題，[/color]
[color=red]請移玉步至本區的「[color=green][b]氣象聊天茶座[/b][/color]」。[/color]

[[i] 本帖最後由 極地雪犬 於 2011-12-22 12:13 AM 編輯 [/i]]

27W developed so fast, out of expectation of different models....hope that it can really be named (23W~26W all unnamed:smile_27: they all formed in South China Sea).....Since the environment east of the Philippines is better than that of South China Sea, the chance of getting the name "Washi" is still high.:smile_30:
seems that it is generally moving towards Vietnam:smile_38:

[[i] 本帖最後由 raymond765 於 2011-12-13 05:22 PM 編輯 [/i]]

23W係榕樹!
估計27W都係越南貨居多



[url=http://m.discuss.com.hk][img=100,23]http://i1.hk/d/images/r10/mobile.jpg[/img][/url]

JTWC預測27W會在橫過[u]菲律賓[/u]前增強為颱風, 進入南海後再度增強為颱風, 預測非常樂觀!
不過系統目前在大約145E, 所以言之尚早~:smile_30:

唔知我果class d同學會唔會又話
12月仲有颱風......
世界變

咁呢-.-''

不過12月有颱風 係唔係都係正常ge -.-

[quote]原帖由 [i]kenney823[/i] 於 2011-12-13 07:27 PM 發表 [url=http://www.discuss.com.hk/redirect.php?goto=findpost&pid=312817266&ptid=16615023][img]http://www.discuss.com.hk/images/common/back.gif[/img][/url]
唔知我果class d同學會唔會又話
12月仲有颱風......
世界變

咁呢-.-''

不過12月有颱風 係唔係都係正常ge -.- [/quote]吹黎香港先有小小問題.....
西太一年四季都會有TC出現....
以前12月下旬都有颱風移入南海北部(1994年颱風阿克塞爾)

但睇而家個勢,都係吹越南機會較高

12月強烈東北季侯風支配南海
熱帶氣旋難以北上
就算能靠近,強度都會大幅削弱

[[i] 本帖最後由 payday 於 2011-12-14 01:09 AM 編輯 [/i]]

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[quote]原帖由 [i]k1k2k[/i] 於 2011-12-14 03:19 PM 發表 [url=http://www.discuss.com.hk/redirect.php?goto=findpost&pid=312906810&ptid=16615023][img]http://www.discuss.com.hk/images/common/back.gif[/img][/url]

明天有股冷空氣抵港並一直南下，27W週末橫過菲律賓並進入南海後應會被NE MONSOON KO鳥:smile_13: [/quote]
你認為NE MONSOON 能夠南下至10-12N嗎?
[img]http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/image_archives/2011/wp272011.11121400.gif[/img]

[quote]原帖由 [i]payday[/i] 於 2011-12-14 01:08 AM 發表 [url=http://www.discuss.com.hk/redirect.php?goto=findpost&pid=312853142&ptid=16615023][img]http://www.discuss.com.hk/images/common/back.gif[/img][/url]
12月強烈東北季侯風支配南海
熱帶氣旋難以北上
就算能靠近,強度都會大幅削弱 [/quote]
大大個副高在頭頂....
[img]http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/westpac/winds/wgmsdlm1.GIF[/img]

[quote]原帖由 [i]k1k2k[/i] 於 2011-12-14 03:19 PM 發表 [url=http://www.discuss.com.hk/redirect.php?goto=findpost&pid=312906810&ptid=16615023][img]http://www.discuss.com.hk/images/common/back.gif[/img][/url]

明天有股冷空氣抵港並一直南下，27W週末橫過菲律賓並進入南海後應會被NE MONSOON KO鳥:smile_13: [/quote]
個人估計 : 如果JTWC預測成真, 27W便會一直沿著10N-15N西進, 就算27W進入南海, 只會受乾空氣和冷水溫(較弱地)影響, 極其量會以TD下限橫過南海~
[size=2][color=Red][color=Black]至於風切, 西風槽應該無法南下至15N, 所以風切對27W影響不太大... [/color](如有錯請指正)[/color][/size]

[[i] 本帖最後由 justinchan03 於 2011-12-14 05:29 PM 編輯 [/i]]

[quote]原帖由 [i]hkwol2001[/i] 於 2011-12-14 04:08 PM 發表 [url=http://www.discuss.com.hk/redirect.php?goto=findpost&pid=312912185&ptid=16615023][img]http://www.discuss.com.hk/images/common/back.gif[/img][/url]

你認為NE MONSOON 能夠南下至10-12N嗎?
[img]http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/image_archives/2011/wp272011.11121400.gif[/img] [/quote]東北季候風絕對可以南下至10-12n, 只是已經變性, 但對於一個熱帶氣旋來說, 強東北季候風在較低緯度可以仍比較乾, 還是會影響發展的...
東北季候風如果夠強的話,確會南下到10-12N的....
[img]http://bbs.typhoon.gov.cn/attachment/thumb/Mon_1112/11_21118_82fa413f02fbe8e.jpg?43[/img]

jtwc再度降格TD

WARNING POSITION:
   150000Z --- NEAR 7.2N 134.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - [b]030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT[/b]
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 7.2N 134.3E
    ---

JMA已升TS並命名為天鷹



[url=http://m.discuss.com.hk][img=100,23]http://i1.hk/d/images/r10/mobile.jpg[/img][/url]

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令我諗起05年的天鷹一世,HKO亦在當時被市民批評發T1的準則



[url=http://m.discuss.com.hk][img=100,23]http://i1.hk/d/images/r10/mobile.jpg[/img][/url]

[quote]原帖由 [i]david93[/i] 於 2011-12-15 05:18 PM 發表 [url=http://www.discuss.com.hk/redirect.php?goto=findpost&pid=313034672&ptid=16615023][img]http://www.discuss.com.hk/images/common/back.gif[/img][/url]令我諗起05年的天鷹一世,HKO亦在當時被市民批評發T1的準則[img=100,23]http://i1.hk/d/images/r10/mobile.jpg[/img] [/quote]可惜二世相信唔會打嚟香港:smile_39:



[url=http://www.discuss.com.hk/android][img=100,23]http://i.discuss.com.hk/d/images/r10/androidD.jpg[/img][/url]

finally named...seems that strengthening is most likely before landing on Philippines. due to the southwesterly track in South China Sea, the chance of affecting HK is very small:smile_30:

[quote]原帖由 [i]k1k2k[/i] 於 2011-12-15 04:59 PM 發表 [url=http://www.discuss.com.hk/redirect.php?goto=findpost&pid=313032681&ptid=16615023][img]http://www.discuss.com.hk/images/common/back.gif[/img][/url]

HKO亦跟隨其命名
即刻諗起香港盃倒灶GE"天鷹X翔":smile_30: [/quote]
佢都唔係倒灶啦:smile_30: :smile_30: :smile_30:  因為佢都唔係大熱:smile_30:
正題:
[img]http://bbs.typhoon.gov.cn/attachment/Mon_1112/11_68912_23b2d6ee1f65012.jpg?34[/img]
環流正在縮小....要變子彈形TC?:smile_27:

JTWC預計去到越南附近之後會南折去吉隆波....
[img]http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp2711.gif[/img]

想問下點解會咁預測既???:smile_41:

原來馬來西亞咁低緯度的地區都會打風

[quote]原帖由 [i]曼尼洛斯[/i] 於 2011-12-16 09:25 PM 發表 [url=http://www.discuss.com.hk/redirect.php?goto=findpost&pid=313159944&ptid=16615023][img]http://www.discuss.com.hk/images/common/back.gif[/img][/url]
JTWC預計去到越南附近之後會南折去吉隆波....
[img]http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp2711.gif[/img]

想問下點解會咁預測既???:smile_41: [/quote]27W 在南海西部會受低海溫,強風切及乾空氣影響而減弱
所以27W 會受東北季風引導向西南偏西行

到底可以去到幾低緯度呢..
JMA好似停編了

今次天鷹對菲律賓南部造成嚴重傷亡
日後會否將天鷹除名呢?